Ethics of catastrophe, pandemic flu will strain resources

Scientists from around the world meet every February to study the hundreds of influenza strains percolating around the globe. They predict the top three for each hemisphere and kick-start the six-month manufacturing process.

They are usually right, but not always. Last year, three out of five seasonal flu cases reported were caused by strains not included in 2007-08 vaccine.

This year's seasonal flu will bring its fair share of illness and an estimated 500 deaths statewide. But what if an entirely new virus hits, one never seen before?

Dr. Robert Ball, an epidemiologist with the S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control said, "That's why this virus scares me. It has the ability to mutate in the blink of an eye."

A worst-case scenario could kill up to 25,000 South Carolinians. The sick would overwhelm hospitals, absenteeism would close businesses and food supplies would slow.

Ball is among those mobilizing the South Carolina Pandemic Influenza Task Force that will meet Tuesday in Columbia to answer some tough questions. Who will get the last ventilator? Who will get the first vaccines?

Read more in tomorrow's editions of The Post and Courier.